THANKSGIVING AM:Refresh for chart and more analysis It’s Theatrical Forever for Disney/Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever which precedes yesterday afternoon’s estimates with $10 millionbut not so much for the studio’s animated films Strange world which did $4.2 million yesterday. This will per industry estimates translate to a 3-day and 5-day $43 million and $55M-$60M to Wakanda Forever, and a disastrous 3 and 5 day $15.8 million and $20M-$23M to Strange world which cost a reported $135M. That’s not the worst for a Disney animated film, especially over Thanksgiving, but it’s damn close: Their $140M original animated film. Treasure Planet was in freefall back in 2003 with a 3-day of $12M and $16.5M. A former Disney executive once told me, “They are very good at making the best worst case decision” and in the scenario of strange world, it’s sending it to Disney+ before the holidays. Even though the picture is about to hit theaters, that kind of big screen release will at least give it some extra mojo. Everyone remembers that when theatrical is trying to find its footing, especially among these adult titles that don’t find an audience – either that, or it’s a case of niche cannibalization of itself.
Speaking of adult titles, while Sony and Black Label Medias Devotionper public box office reporting shows $1.8 million from yesterday at 3,405 theaters, and $10.2 million for 5-day and 3-day off $6.1 millionhowever, industry sources tell us this AM that Netflix’s sneak preview of the release of Glass onion: A Knives Out Mysterykills all adult competition, and that’s only in 638 theaters. We hear Wednesday was very close $2 millionwith 3-day and 5-day projected $8.5 million and $10M-$12.3M, which is great for adult counterprogramming right now. We’ll update you if Netflix reports numbers. If the Rian Johnson directed, Ram Bergman produced whodunnit sequel arrives at the high end, that’s a massive $19.2K theater average and proof that adults still want to go to the movies. As we told you earlier, especially since many of these films are in the single digits, they are too niche, hence their lower box office sales. Any development exec puzzling over what’s working right now on the big screen among older adults, splash some cold water on your face and remember last year’s stellar crime caper packagefrom Ridley Scott, House of Gucci with Lady Gaga, Adam Driver, Jared Leto and Al Pacino. That film, when there were more concerns about Covid, posted $14.4 million 3-day and $22 million 5-day. Just a refresher on the type of movie that gets adults out.
Knives out 2 is to bury such adult food as ($1.1 million Wednesday, $5 million second weekend and $7 million 5 days), Bones and all($921,000 Wednesday, $2.4 million 3-day and $3.9 million 5-day) and Universal’s expansion of Amblin’s The Fabelman familywhich did $400,000 in 638 theaters for an expected $2.2 million 3-day and $3 million 5-day. On the high end, the Steven Spielberg-directed film will finish with a $4.7K theater average.
And get this iSpot shows that Netflix spent less than the big ones to open Glass onion with $4.3 million in TV spots to Disney’s $16 million on strange world, Sony’s $14.8M on Devotion, The $10.8 million spotlight is on The menu and Uni’s $8.5M on Fabelmans,
RelishMix reports that Knives out 2 had a massive social media reach of 307.7M, up nearly 3x from the first opening to $26.7M. and $41.1 million. back in 2018. Among the socially active on the cast are Kate Hudson on 17.7 million, Dave Bautista on 15.4 million. Edward Norton on 4.1M, Janelle Monáe on 7.4M, while Daniel Craig is still off the grid.
Says RelishMix about the buzz, “Convo on Glass onion runs positive with mixed curiosity as to how it will fare against the success of version one. Fans are speculating from materials talking about the ‘smoothest transition for a 007 ever’ – as well as support for Dave Bautista’s tattoos and adoration for Ed Norton, Kate Hudson and Janelle Monáe. Fans circle the sliding streaming windows, openly debating whether to wait or go — while wondering how surprising the revelations in the story will play out.”
Strange world received four stars on Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak and a B CinemaScore. Men over 25 were dominant at 33%, but hated it at 66%. Women over 25 were next in attendance with 24% but gave it a 90% rating, then men under 25 with 23% and 83% and women under 25 with 21% giving the picture its best rating with 92%. Diversity demos were 47% Caucasian, 25% Asian, 22% Hispanic, and 6% Black. Not a flashy 55% recommendation. RelishMix noticed that Strange world the level of awareness on social media was 22% below the norms for family animated films of 172M. The campaign on Disney’s social media runs on cross-promotional momentum from Disney’s social network of 107.7 million. and Disney Animations at DKK 26.2 million. across Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram and TikTok, including a cast of 217.2 million with total impressions of 38.2 million channels.
Devotion gets 5 stars on PostTrak, 90% score. Diversity demos were 61% Caucasian, 19% Black, 11% Hispanic and Latino, and 6% Asian. Men over 25 were big with 49% (88%), women over 25 with 33% (95%), men under 25 with 12% (76%) and women under 25 with 6% (100%).
Bones and all gets a B Cinemascore and 3 stars on PostTrak. Timothee Chalmet fans were the majority on this film with women under 25 with 32%, but a rating of 73%. Men over 25 were next at 25% but with a low 58% rating, then women over 25 at 23% and 76% and men under 25 at 19% and an 80% rating.
While ticket sales will be down today due to the holidays by -16%, they will be up tomorrow on Black Friday, a big day for moviegoing, by +93%.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Early numbers and take the 3-day and 5-day with a grain of salt, as projections are always off at this point in a Thanksgiving stretch. Disney/Marvel Studios’ Black Panther:Wakanda forever leads today with $9.5m, even with yesterday and one $50 million Wednesday to Sunday view. However, strange world, as we thought, it falls short of its $30 million projection by $23M-$27M. Including previews, today looks like around $4.5 million to $5 million for the animated film. Charm last year had an opening day of $7.6M. Apparently, Strange world closed the gap on early matinees with Charm, and hopefully that momentum continues.
Sony and Black Label Media Devotion in 3,405 cinemas see $1.7 million today with $9M-$10M for the 5 days, in third place. Search lightThe menu has an estimated $1 million to Wednesday for $6M-$8M over 5 days.
At this moment I am hearing erratic reports about Glass onion: A Knives Out Mystery. Some have it ahead of all the frosh adult counterprogramming in presales, while others don’t.
WEDNESDAY AT: It’s not like people weren’t going to the movies yesterday as we head into Thanksgiving: Disney/Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forevermade $9.5 million in 4,258 theaters on Tuesday, pushing the Ryan Coogler-directed sequel past the three-century mark of $303.7 millionmaking it the 7th film to cross that threshold this year Top Gun: Maverick, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Jurassic World: Dominion, Minions: The Rise of Gru, The Batman and Thor: Love and Thunder.
However, there wasn’t really any excitement last night to see previews of Disney Animations Strange world, which as we told you doesn’t look so good for the holiday stretch. Off previews that started at 18. Strange world only did $800,000, which is arguably the lowest for a Disney Thanksgiving theatrical release in the era of early preview theaters. That’s close to half of what Charm did in its Tuesday opening a year ago with $1.5M, and that’s when there was more pandemic fear among moviegoers. A $30M+ five-day start for Strange world at 4,174 theaters is what we expected, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if it’s lower as the weekend for the third time belongs to Wakanda Forever, which is now poised to make $50M+ over Wednesday through Sunday. Audience score on Strange world is currently low on Rotten Tomatoes at 62%, but only from 50 reviews.
Wakanda forever‘s Tuesday, +36% over Monday, repeats its third-highest weekday (outside of Friday) after its first Monday and Tuesday, which respectively brought in $11.1M. and $12.6 million.
Search lightThe menu was second yesterday with $1.3 million at 3,228 venues, +26% during Monday for a running five-day total of 11.3 million. USD to 3,211. While A24’s Midsummer – a good genre comp here too Menu- took a different tack, opening on a Wednesday in July, the Mark Mylod-directed Anya Taylor Joy film here is 4% of the Ari Aster film in its first five days.
Fathom Eventsand Angel Studios’ The Chosen: Season 3submitted $1.02 million-19% from Monday for a running total of $11 million.
New line/DCs Black Adamwas fourth Tuesday with $690,000 at 3,372 locations, +17% for a running total of $158.3 million. The Dwayne Johnson film is available to own digitally for $24.99 or to rent for 48 hours via PVOD for $19.99. On January 3, the film hits DVD, Blu-Ray and 4K.
In 5 was Universal’s George Clooney and Julia Roberts romantic comedy,Ticket to paradise, who made $490,000 in 3,268 cinemas, +22% from Monday for the total $62.4 million. The picture can already be seen on PVOD.
Sony distributed Black Label Media war films Devotion made $615,000 in 2,982 cinemas, which started the show at 18.00. That number is above Thursday’s preview numbers for Focus Features’ BlackKKKlansman which made $600K before seeing a $3.6M Friday and $10.8M opening, but it was a very different time of year as it was late summer pre-pandemic 2018. The Jonathan Majors-Glen Powell film is expected to see $7M- 8 million dollars over five days.
United Artists Releasing wide expansion previews of Bones and all did $345,000 as it goes to 2,700 cinemas today. Over five days, apart from previews, the Luca Guadagnino-directed genre picture has been making $146.7K from five theaters in NYC and LA. Single-digit five-day consumption is expected.