Prisco’s Week 12 NFL picks: Tom Brady, Bucs win third straight; The Titans get their revenge on the Bengals

It finally happened. I had a good week in all three areas of selection play.

I went 4-2 with my best picks as part of the Pick Six podcast, 11-3 straight up and 7-5-2 against the spread in my expert picks.

That raises my best bet to 38-25-2, which I’m happy about. The outright record is now 95-69 and the ATS record is 74-82-8. The latter needs to get back above .500, so that’s the goal for the next few weeks.

Let’s hope the holiday week is good for me, starting with a Thanksgiving sweep in games that feature teams with some impressive records.

Thursday at 12:30 PM ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured game | Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills

This has the basis for a game with a lot of offense. Both teams can score, but the Bills can really score. They’ll put up a big number here as Josh Allen wins a second straight game in Detroit after beating the Browns last week in the same building. The track is fast and the bills can fly. The lions will not follow.

Pick: Bills 40, Lions 23

Thursday at 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured game | Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

The Giants are coming off a terrible showing at home against the Lions, which means they might have been looking forward to this one. The Cowboys straightened things up in their blowout win over the Vikings. The defense dominated, and it will also dominate here. The Giants are too limited on offense.

Pick: Cowboys 31, Giants 14

Thursday at 8:20 PM ET (NBC, FuboTV)

The Vikings were embarrassed Sunday at home when they were blown out by the Cowboys. They will come back and play better here. The New England offense is struggling, but the defense is playing well. Still, I think the Vikings will respond offensively in this one to win it. The Patriots offense is bad.

Pick: Vikings 24, Patriots 14

Sunday at 1 PM ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured game | Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos

This is the dog game of the week with two terrible offenses. First one to 10 wins? Denver has the better defense, but at home I think the Panthers will find a way to win this one. Denver continues to struggle.

Pick: Panthers 17, Broncos 13

Sunday at 1 PM ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured game | Cleveland Browns vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are coming off the bye in first place and seemingly poised to get their season off to the start they expected. They’re getting healthier, and that’s going to mean something down the stretch, starting here in this one. The Browns are bad on defense, so look for Tom Brady to have a solid day. The Browns running game is limited. Bucs take it.

Pick: Bucs 30, Browns 17

Sunday at 13 ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured game | Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Jaguars are coming off their bye with a tough home game against the Ravens. The Baltimore defense has come alive in recent weeks and will pose a real challenge for Trevor Lawrence. Lamar Jackson and the offense have to pick it up. It’s going to be low, but it’s close.

Pick: Ravens 21, Jaguars 20

Sunday at 13 ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured game | Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans

The Dolphins come from their bye as heavy favorites. The Texans could make a quarterback change, but it won’t matter. The Dolphins have been explosive on offense all year, and that doesn’t change in this one. Tua Tagovailoa keeps it rolling in a blowout.

Pick: Dolphins 36, Texans 14

Sunday at 1 PM ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured game | New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears

It won’t be pretty if Justin Fields can’t play. Both offenses would be heavily restricted. The Jets have the much better defense, one that is on the verge of becoming dominant. That’s the difference regardless of who is playing quarterback for these two.

Pick: Jets 20, Bears 14

Sunday at 13 ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured game | Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals

This is a rematch of last January’s playoff game where the Bengals upset the Titans on the road. The Bengals have played much better of late, but they are playing back-to-back road games, while the Titans will be rested after playing last Thursday. Derrick Henry wasn’t himself when they played in the playoffs last season. He is now. The Titans get it behind them.

Pick: Titans 27, Bengals 21

Sunday at 1 PM ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured game | Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons

This is kind of a playoff game. Both teams are alive. Washington has turned the season around thanks to its defense. Taylor Heinicke also makes timely plays. The Falcons are limited on offense, which is the difference. Washington remains warm.

Pick: Commanders 27, Falcons 17

Sunday at 4:05 PM ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured game | Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Cardinals looked awful in a loss to the 49ers in Mexico and are now playing with their playoff hopes on the line. The Chargers are coming off a loss to the Chiefs, but they showed some life in that game on offense. It continues as Justin Herbert has a big day.

Pick: Chargers 30, Cardinals 20

Sunday at 4:05 PM ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured game | Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are coming off a bye, while the Raiders are playing a second straight road game. Bad combination. The Raiders have major defensive issues that will show up against a good Seattle offense. Geno Smith and the Seahawks take it.

Pick: Seahawks 31, Raiders 24

Sunday at 4:25 PM ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are a mess while the Chiefs are riding high. The Rams have health issues and likely won’t have Matthew Stafford. It’s a problem. The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and he will create this Rams defense. Blowout city.

Pick: Chiefs 37, Rams 13

Sunday at 4:25 PM ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured game | San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints

The 49ers are coming off an impressive win over the Cardinals in Mexico. They seem to roll with all their weapons on attack. The Saints beat the Rams last week with Andy Dalton playing well. I think they will hang around in this game as the 49ers are on a short week. It is closer than expected.

Pick: 49ers 24, Saints 20

Sunday at 8:20 PM ET (NBC, FuboTV)

Featured game | Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers

The Packers’ playoff chances are barely alive, but trying to keep them alive is a real challenge. Aaron Rodgers didn’t play well last week, but I think he’s playing better here. The Eagles haven’t looked good in the last two games. Packers keep it close.

Pick: Eagles 26, Packers 21

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)

Featured game | Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Colts looked to be on their way to a 2-0 win last week under Jeff Saturday, but took a late lead against the Eagles. The Steelers hung around against the Bengals, where Kenny Pickett proved better at quarterback. The Steelers defense is much better with TJ Watt back and I think the front will keep the Steelers in this game.

Pick: Colts 20, Steelers 19

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